Mustard Director Gareth Hodgson on the launch of Bluesky and what this could mean for X (Twitter).
*Don’t worry, you can keep reading, this isn’t a load of jargony marketing bollocks
Autumn is a big-time for bird migration. This year, it’s also been a big-time for migration from the bird app (well, that’s what it used to be called anyway before it was X’d out).
The last seven days have been pivotal in the world of social media as millions of people have been jumping to Bluesky. Specifically from X (TSMPFKA Twitter).
From 9m users in September, the platform has now more than doubled to 20m users as of Tuesday 19th November. As I type, it’s attracting 12 new users per second.
If you’re not thinking about Bluesky, you should be.
Some of you might be asking what Bluesky is. Well in summary…
- It’s a social media platform originally thought up by Twitter founder Jack Dorsey (although he has since left the Board earlier this year).
- It basically looks, feels and operates like Twitter did prior to the Elon Musk takeover and rebrand.
- The core-purpose however was to provide an alternative de-centralised platform, unlike platforms such as X and Facebook which are controlled by one company/owner. The focus being to mitigate issues such as censorship, data privacy concerns and centralised control.
So why are people leaving X and join Bluesky?…
The TLDR answer is Elon Musk. Yes, the cosmetic rebrand from Twitter to X was negatively received, but that wasn’t enough to put too much of a dent in people’s usage. Deeper than this are a whole host of changes in functionality, usability, experience and ethos which are driving people away.
- The algorithm has changed to an extent that people now see a host of content they have no desire to see.
- The platform’s content moderation rules have been loosened, leaving it littered with harmful mistruths and propaganda under the guise of “free speech”.
- The rise of Bots as the authentication process was changed.
- Changing core functionality to allow “likes” to be hidden and previously blocked profiles to be able to view your content.
These changes have had a detrimental impact on the X experience. Users are now having to encounter an increased volume of extreme right-wing views, racism, pornography, conspiracy theories and fabricated information. As recently as August, a YouGov survey showed that 42% of DAILY users have a negative view of X.
The recent US Presidential Election has however been a more impactful trigger to leave the platform. Elon Musk used the platform to heavily push the Donald Trump election campaign, and people have significant concerns about his (and his centralised platforms) alignment to the Trump administration.
X has lost over 25% over daily users since Elon Musk bought the company and this is accelerating.
Why is the migration different this time?
We’ve heard this before, haven’t we? People joining Threads. People joining Mastodon. It never works, does it?
A big problem in the past has been habit. As Charles Duhigg theorised, habits are built on the Cue-Craving-Response-Reward Habit Loop.
You might hate the changed name/logo. You might hate the functionality. You might hate the changed content. But your reason for using X remains the same. To access the content you visit it for. That might be to engage with friends. That might be to source information. That might be to view specific content.
If you are still getting that reward, despite all the negativity, then you will still follow the habit, particularly if you can’t get that reward elsewhere.
A difference this time is that communities are flocking to Bluesky rather than individuals. Influencers are migrating and they are taking their followers with them. Online friendship groups based around specific hobbies are making the jump.
“Swifties” were an early proponent of the jump. Media platforms are following (The Guardian said this week that they will no longer be posting on X).
This means that while the cue and craving are the same, the reward can be achieved with a different response… opening Bluesky instead of X. It isn’t a barren platform. It’s becoming more of a living, breathing entity on a daily basis. And it’s a living, breathing entity that feels like Twitter (not X) used to.
And importantly, you can see the content you want to see and you can easily block the content you don’t want to see, without a controlling individual deciding what that is.
So what now?
Well, it’s not like this is the death of X. Well, not right now anyway. It still has 15 times more daily users than Bluesky has accounts. BUT, as Bluesky continues to grow and becomes more embedded as a “reward” destination, it becomes a more realistic alternative for those later adopters who have a similar mindset but who are more resistant to switching.
Social platforms used to be heavily defined by their functionality and age of the user-base. We now need to consider other factors such as political and moral stances.
People want control over what they see and hear. Instead of conflict and rage, they want safer spaces which align to their own mindsets. Instead of social media bringing the world together, people are now using it to retreat and fragment into their own curated echo-chambers.
If you’re not listening to them, it’s going to be harder to make them listen.