Mustard’s 2025 World Cup of Music has reached it’s finale. Except this year was different. Coordinator-in-chief Gareth put AI to the test, asking ChatGPT to predict the winner using nothing more than team profiles and a playlist of 45 songs. The results were… surprisingly uncomfortable for anyone still sceptical about AI’s predictive power.
Let’s be honest, since ChatGPT became a thing, you’ve probably asked it as many questions about random bullshit as you have for genuinely useful work related stuff. (Hopefully that’s not just me).
Every year at Mustard we run the highly prestigious “Mustard Music World Cup”. Everybody picks three songs that they love and we create a tournament with “matches/fixtures”. We listen to the songs head-to-head and then anonymously vote on the winner. The loser goes out and the winner lives to fight another day in the next round. You get the picture.
This year the World Cup had 45 songs (*you can see the full list at the bottom of this blog if you’re interested). As the curator of the tournament, I immediately spotted the opportunity for some more ChatGPT bullshit.
I wonder if it can predict the winner?
Now we all know by now that the effectiveness of AI lives and dies by the level of information you provide it, and the specificity of the questions you ask.
So, one weekend I embarked on painstakingly providing ChatGPT with a profile of each member of the office (age band/gender) and what I knew about their musical tastes from songs they’ve selected in the past, gigs I know they’ve been to etc.
<Does this guy know how to party or what?!>
I then uploaded the list of the 45 songs and asked ChatGPT based on the songs selected/office profiles to predict the four songs most likely to win.
It came back with…
There is at least a 1 in 148,995 chance of correctly predicting the final four (yes, AI told me that as well), so surely it couldn’t be right, especially when you factor in the random draw element?
We got down to the semi-final stage last week. Our semi-final draw?
- Love Will Tear Us Apart by Joy Division vs. Song 2 by Blur
- Dancing on my Own by Robyn vs. I Bet That You Look Good on the Dancefloor by Arctic Monkeys
The very top four that ChatGPT predicted.
It also made a prediction on the final and likely winner…
As you can see from our semi-final draw above, it was unlucky that its two predicted finalists were drawn against each other in the semi-final, but at least it definitely got one finalist correct.
And guess what.
Robyn made it to the final against Blur and won comfortably 10 votes to 5. ChatGPT’s number one prediction only went and won the whole thing. Mind. Blown.
We sometimes protectively scoff at the predictive capabilities of AI in market research, particularly when it comes to people’s potential behaviour or opinions and the use of synthetic respondents. But if we give it the right information and ask it the right questions, maybe the power of music tells us we need to be more open-minded.
If it can be this accurate with a sample size of 15, then what it can achieve with a sample size of thousands or millions is scary.
The only thing is, I’m not sure if that’s scary-good or scary-bad.
The 2025 Mustard Music World Cup Entrants
3AM – overpass
A Little Respect – Erasure
Ain’t No Love – Sub Sub
All Along The Watchtower – Jimi Hendrix
Asking For A Friend – CHVRCHES
Bill Murray – Adult DVD
Boss – Little Simz
Breathe – The Prodigy
Burst – The Darling Buds
Catch These Fists – Wet Leg
Catching Bodies – Sekou
Choker – Honeyblood
Dancing on my Own – Robyn
December 1963 – The Four Seasons
Denial is a River – Doechii
End Credits – Chase & Status
Fairytale in the Supermarket – The Raincoats
Heads Will Roll – Yeah Yeah Yeahs
Home – Joe Goddard
I Bet That You Look Good on the Dancefloor – Arctic Monkeys
I Don’t Wanna Dance – Eddy Grant
I Got Exactly What I Wanted – The Convenience
I Love You – Fontaines DC
Linger (SiriusXM Session) – Royel Otis
Losing My Religion – REM
Love Will Tear Us Apart – Joy Division
Maneater – Nelly Furtado
Miami – Will Smith
No Scrubs – TLC
Real Love Baby – Father John Misty
Rhythm is a Dancer – SNAP!
Richard III – Supergrass
Runaway – Kanye West f/ Pusha T
Say Yes to Heaven – Lana Del Ray
Slow – Kylie Minogue
Soldier On – The Temper Trap
Son of Man – Phil Collins
Song 2 – Blur
Souvenir – Bump of Chicken
Steal my Sunshine – LEN
Take Me Away (1991) – True Faith
Unconditional – Jade
Waiting Room – Fugazi
Wake Me Up – Avicii
Wildfires – SAULT
Click HERE if you fancy a listen to the Mustard Spotify playlist – and let us know if you find a new favourite!